100-Year Storms & Polar Vortex
As much as I am asked, sadly I cannot make it rain so I thought the next best thing was to talk about the times we get too much rain in hopes some would come our way.
I am sure you have all heard these terms thrown around, especially after Hurricane Harvey in 2017: 1 in 200 year drought, 1 in 500 year storm, 1 in 1000 year flood. But do you know what they mean?
First things first, these events are not cyclical like the 1 in however many years may have you think. So no, we are not overdue for a massive event because the last one happened 1,500 years ago and it’s a 1 in 700 year event.
The reasoning behind the 1 in X amount of years is they stand for the odds. The floods associated with Harvey were 1 in 500 year floods, what this means is that there was a 1 in 500 chance that those floods could happen any day that year. The reason we use that system of categorizing is that the odds of that type of flood happening on any day in August are larger than winning the Power-Ball Jackpot, 10 times over or in astronomical terms, 1,000 times as many stars in the visible universe.
So the 1 in X years statement is used to shorten that down to a more understandable number. To conclude, your friend on Facebook who is always saying we are overdue for a hurricane the size of Texas, or an asteroid strike, you can calm their fears by explaining what 1 in 1,000 years actually means.
If you like reading my articles or have any questions you would like answered then please send me an email at tomy3290@gmail.com. As college is back in full stride for me, it makes these articles better for me and you when I am answering your questions, so please send me a message if you have any suggestions or questions. Now onto your local weather.
With me speaking of rain on Wednesday there was a 70% chance of thunderstorms as the cooler weather dissipates and the heat and moisture from the Gulf returned during the early part of this week.
The “Polar Vortex” (here’s a hint about next week’s article topic) is coming in to cool us down again. Thursday onward into the weekend will be chilly with highs in the low 60’s and high 50’s, lows in the 30’s with a freeze chance on Friday night going into Saturday morning. No astronomical events to report. Thanks and Gig’em!
La Grange native Thomas Borgstedte is a meteorology student at Texas A&M.