GOP Will Lose With Trump
To the Editor:
Donald Trump’s term as President was by and large satisfactory.
Conservative principles were applied and governmental institutions were generally respected and preserved.
Trump’s behavior since the November 2020 election has shown that he has no respect for or belief in our governmental institutions or the rule of law. He and his ardent supporters challenged the outcome of that election and claimed that “the election was stolen.” Over 50 lawsuits were filed in as many different jurisdictions in many different states, but every one of them was found to be without merit, and was thrown out. Thanks to our judiciary and the courageous conduct of our lawmakers on Jan. 6, our precious governmental institutions are alive and well.
Prior to and on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump tacitly encouraged armed rebellion among his supporters and condoned their attack on the Capitol when they attempted to subvert the election results. His tune has not changed since then. Such a man is not fit to be President of the United States.
Turning to the present, regardless of how you and I may feel about the validity of conservative principles, Donald Trump has very little chance of being re-elected as President. Do the math.
Polls indicate that a majority of U. S. voters are Republicans -- approximately 55% of the U. S. voting public. They also clearly indicate that about 40% of them are solid Trump supporters. If Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee it is likely that as many as twothirds of the rest of conservative voters will vote for him. It is also very likely that a significant fraction of Republican voters – probably 20% -- will recognize Trump’s unsuitability to be President and will vote for the Democrat nominee. This suggests strongly that Trump’s share of the Presidential vote will be no more than: 40% die-hard Trump Republicans plus 40% of other Republicans = 80% of GOP voters.
80% of GOP voters (who are 55% of all voters ) = 44 percent of the total vote.
The Democrat share will be 45% of all voters (Democrats) + 20% of 55 % of all voters (Republicans) = 56 %.
If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee he will lose the Presidential election.
However if the 2024 Republican nominee is anyone other than Donald Trump he is very likely to win the Presidency with a comfortable majority of the votes. With the support of a Republican controlled Congress, we could very well have a return to rational government!