Find Good News Where You Can
Readers, if you bought a new car or truck this year, I hope you didn’t let that sales rep at the dealership talk you into buying a diesel vehicle! Unfortunately, diesel prices are double what they were ten years ago, and that’s a disaster for truckers hauling freight, for railroads trying to get heavy loads across the country, for maritime shipping companies (ocean, lake, or river), and for farmers desperate to get crops harvested just now. Especially for farmers, this is a huge problem because crop loans were negotiated earlier, with lower fuel price expectations.
The underlying cause, of course, is the Iran War, which restricts oil exports from the Persian Gulf region, but we have plenty of oil here, so why should the war matter to us? For now, the U.S. continues to allow exports of oil and oil derivatives like diesel, and so about a third of the diesel we produce goes elsewhere. Mostly that’s going to the nations that can’t import oil anymore, or who relied on diesel produced in refineries that have now been destroyed, not only in the Persian Gulf area, but also in Ukraine and Russia.
It’s those new international customers who are driving up the prices of U.S. diesel, forcing U.S. customers to pay the market price internationally, rather than what prices would be here, were exports prohibited. [One could well ask the Trump Administration why export prohibition might not be as good a strategy as tariffs in this situation . . . But then there’s always the political influence of the oil and gas industry lobby, of course.] Certainly, the bigger picture for the U.S. economy goes beyond the oil sector and diesel prices: our inflation increase for Social Security checks this fall will likely be just over 3.5%, almost double the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for inflation, and of course, that target has not been achieved since 2018. This makes it ever more likely that the Federal Reserve will raise its own benchmark interest rates by a quarter of a percent or more when it meets in a few days (from the date I write this.)
Now what are the take-aways for consumers from all this? Loans for homes, autos, college education, and credit card debt will continue to be more costly, driving up the cost of living still further. And for businesses: growth or expansion will be that much more risky, with higher borrowing costs to be covered by future revenues.
Higher Federal Reserve interest rates always carry the risk of tipping the economy into a recession, and in all but the large high-growth states (such as Texas), sluggish or contracting business activity is already a reality. Even in the high-growth states, higher interest rates put new ventures already underway but not yet open on more perilous ground than they were six months ago, and banks are no doubt scrutinizing these commitments more closely.
Consumer sentiment has declined just recently, too, despite good news from the job creation levels in recent surveys: over 160,000 jobs were added to the US economy in August. There is also good news on another front: insured losses from natural disasters during the first half of 2026 are the lowest worldwide since 2020, and are running 16% below the ten-year average, according to a Swiss reinsurance research firm.
Find good news where you can, dear readers. And that’s likely to be among your friends and neighbors right here in our own community. Be kind, be generous, be well, in spite of all the negative economic news on the world or national front. Our lives here have much to celebrate (and The Fayette County Record is always the best place to find out all about it.)