Examining El Niño and La Niña
We always seem to be hearing about El Niño and La Niña and how they will affect the weather but what exactly are they? Well this article will be your introduction into what they are, how they happen and how they affect us.
This actually has some coincidences as the phenomenon was discovered in the 1600’s off the western coast of South America, by spanish fishermen who called it El Niño because the waters were unseasonably warm in December, around Christmas, so they called it El Niño, the little boy, because of Christmas.
El Niño and La Niña are the names for the different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO, cycle. This swath of the southern Pacific ocean is much larger than the entirety of North America, with that size it has a huge effect on global weather. El Niño refers to the warmer cycle of ENSO, where in the United States, the northern states see warmer drier winter and the south sees a wetter and colder winter, because the warm moist air coming off of the Pacific ocean will pull the polar jet stream more south. La Niña is the colder cycle of ENSO, where northern states will see a colder wetter winter and the south will have a warmer and dryer winter, because of the lack of water vapor and wind speed La Niña brings to the polar jet stream holding it down and acting like an anchor. Now the difference in ocean temperature between the two cycles on the ocean is very small, only around 3-7 degrees, but with the size of the ENSO a degree or two can drastically affect the energy of the atmosphere. We are currently in La Niña and have been for the past few years, the cycle between the two is normally 9-12 months but one cycle lasting for multiple years is not uncommon. Most years we are in a neutral state between the two as either event occurs every 2-7 years and more often than not we are usually in an El Niño year as they occur 2-3 times more than La Niña. As for next year we are forecasted with a 50% chance to stay in La Niña and a 50% chance to go to an ENSO neutral state with a 0% chance of going into El Niño as of the latest forecast from December 10.
On another note I am now back at college and need your suggestions or questions more than ever to keep making these articles, especially now that it is finals season. You can contact the paper and I will get those messages forwarded to me or you can contact me directly with this email address tomy3290@gmail.com. Any topics are greatly appreciated as the semester is in full swing. Now onto your local weather.
As winter seems to be finally setting into normalcy for the first time this year, you can expect temps for the rest of the week to hang around in the mid to upper 60’s and lower 70’s with lows in the high 30’s with no chance for precipitation. I hope you were able to see the meteor shower on Sunday night as it was absolutely beautiful to see. On the Dec. 21 there are two important astronomical events. First up is the winter solstice which will officially put us into winter up here in the northern hemisphere. Second is the conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn, where the two planets will pass very close together. This will be visible if you look to the west just after sunset, this event is called the “Christmas Star” and will be the brightest it has been in over 800 years. A little fact about that is this event is what most theologists believe is the “star” that Joseph and Mary followed to travel to Bethlehem. Thanks and Gig’em!