COVID Cases Up in Fayette, But Not at July and August Highs

Moreau: Is this a hump we’re in now or is it a ‘U’?

The recent uptick in coronavirus cases in Fayette County has quite a way to go before surpassing the numbers seen locally in July and early August.

Estimates compiled by the Texas Department of State Health Services shows the greatest number of active cases came on Aug. 7 and 8, when 234 cases were reported for both days. However, Fayette County Emergency Management Chief Craig Moreau said that spike may have been an anomaly.

“There was a big data dump around that time,” Moreau said. “Some cases that were not previously reported all got reported at one time.”

The day before, on Aug. 6, the state reported an estimated 57 cases. The day after, on Aug. 9, the state estimated 48 cases.

Setting aside that possible anomaly, the biggest peak in cases appears to have come on July 18. The state estimated 174 active cases that day. That was at a time when outbreaks occured at the Fayette County Jail and local nursing homes. From then, the number of cases trended downward until mid-September. The estimated number of active cases went from 32 on Sept 11 to a high of 98 on Sept 25.

Active cases fell to just 17 on Oct 24, the lowest level since mid-June. Numbers crept up since then, to 41 as of Monday, Nov. 16.

“We were in bad shape back in July and August;” Moreau said. “We’re not near there now. Is this a hump we’re now or is it a ‘U’? My gut feeling is we’ll probably not get back to that level (seen in July), but it could

Moreau stipulated that the number of active case over time as reported by DSHS does not exactly match the number of active cases that his office has tracked since the pandemic began. He said the state’s numbers used in the graph are not based on actual positive cases, Rather, he said, they are estimates based on an algorithm. However, he said the graph’s curve roughly follows the numbers that his office has tracked locally.

“Generally, it looks about right,” he said.

Moreau offered some good news concerning the second “bump” in cases that the graph shows in late September: “At that time we were getting some more (case) numbers but not as many deaths and hospitalizations.”

However, winter will soon be upon us, and it remains to be seen what long-term effects cold weather might have on the pandemic.