Pressing Issue of Climate Change
To the Editor:
Last week’s letter to the editor regarding climate change contained several misleading and inaccurate statements.
1. “In 2004, the Pentagon stated climate change a greater threat than terrorism and by 2024 it would plunge major cities beneath rising seas.”
• In 2004, a report commissioned by the Pentagon did indeed discuss climate change as a serious security threat. The report, titled “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security,” was not an official Pentagon policy document but rather a speculative scenario intended to imagine the potential impacts of abrupt climate change on national security. Like a war game.
2. “In 2008, Dr. James Hansen, former NASA scientist, told theAssociated Press the Arctic would be totally free of sea ice by 2018.”
• This reference comes from when Dr. Hansen testified to Congress about his 1988 study on climate change. Hansen presented three possible scenarios. ‘Business as usual’heavy pollution in Scenario A. ‘Draconian emissions cuts’ in Scenario C, with a moderate Scenario B in between. Scenario A was widely reported because it projected the most sensational outcome, whereas Scenario B more closely reflects the emission reductions that actually occurred. And guess what, the forecast under Scenario B that Dr. Hansen showed congressed has tracked closely with what has happened.
3. “A ‘NASA Expert’ pro claimed that by 2050 temperatures would be 6-7 degrees hotter and civilization will be severely affected.”
• In June 24, 1988, the New York times reported on Hansen’s testimony to Congress. The article stated, “If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit from the year 2025 to 2050, according to these projections.” It appears the newspaper reported only the extremes of ScenarioA.
4. “Deserts are shrinking and the Earth is greening. NASA satellite data from 1982 to 2009 saw as much as 50% of the Earth’s surface increasing in vegetative growth. Even southern Sahara is experiencing a retreat of the desert with plants and grasses blossoming.”
• This statement conflates two studies. The NASA study observed increased vegetation primarily in areas already vegetated, attributed to higher CO2 levels, but did not specifically address deserts. Separately, the Sahara is greening due to increased rainfall, a change attributed to climate change.
5. “Natural disasters have been declining” and “Severe weather-related deaths have declined nearly 99 percent since the early 1900s.”
•Again, these two points are from separate unrelated studies. The trendline for natural disasters shows a 10% decrease, but high variability in this data makes this trend uncertain. A Forbes article from Jan. 10, 2022, details this. Please have a look for yourself.
• The reduction in weatherrelated deaths is largely due to improved weather forecast, early warning systems and irrigation techniques, not a decrease in event severity.
6. “Modest warming is providing longer growing seasons, assisting in the cultivation and harvesting of more food.”
• This may be true in some regions but not universally. Climate impacts on agriculture vary widely by location. NOAA data indicates that 2023 was the warmest year on record since 1850, highlighting the complexity of climate change impacts. Remember our record heat last summer?
Climate change is a real and pressing issue. Misrepresenting facts does not help the situation. It’s important to think critically and research thoroughly before accepting headlines as fact.
Ian Julian La Grange